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July 2023 Luncheon: Innovative Risk-Driven Contract Pricing Strategy

July 31 @ 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm

Innovative Risk-Driven Contract Pricing Strategy by Brian Flynn, Peter Braxton, and Bob Nehring of Technomics, Inc.

Join the WCAC as it welcomes the 2023 ICEAA Paper of the Year winners, Brian Flynn, Peter Braxton, and Bob Nehring while they present their paper, “Innovative Risk-Driven Contract Pricing Strategy“.


Monday, July 31st 12:00 – 1:00 PM eastern


Effective contract pricing strategy helps enable the achievement of best value-for-money in defense procurement.  But any strategy, to be effective, must align with exigencies of the development of production effort.  There’s no one-size-fits-all.  More specifically, selecting a contract type, such as cost-plus or fixed price; a package of incentives (such as event- or calendar-driven); and share lines (above and below target) that are appropriate for a contract requires careful consideration, measurement and assessment of risk factors and uncertainties.  These include:

  • Stability of Requirements.  Degree of firmness and completeness.
  • Market Forces.  Degree of competition.
  • Maturity of Technology.  Degree to which the platform and systems push the state-of- the-art and are technically feasible.
  • Contractor Readiness.  Degree of contractor experience with the design and build of the same or similar systems.
  • Price Validation.  Extent to which a contract’s target cost and price have been estimated independently, outside the influence of the project office or contractor.
  • Schedule.  Likelihood of failing to meet schedule plans and the effect of that failure.

This paper presents a scoring framework that quantifies the influence of these factors and, thus, provides a numerical basis for the determination of recommended contract geometry for upcoming procurements.

Speaker Bios

Brian Flynn supports national security efforts at Technomics’ Arlington, Virginia, headquarters.  He has a deep understanding of and strong working relationships with many of the cost and operations research organizations in the U.S. DoD and the NATO Alliance.  His areas of expertise include capability portfolio analysis and AoAs, weapon system and software cost estimating – including the cloud, EVM, econometric modeling, and corporate financial health.  Dr. Flynn has undying pride in his service as a Marine.

Distinguished mathematician, scientist, statistician, and polymath, Peter Braxton is an international authority in the discipline of defense cost analysis.  He’s commonly regarded as a man of mental capabilities that far surpass those of mere mortals in the profession.  He’s the winner of multiple best-paper awards, and has taught extensively at government, corporate, and society training events throughout the United States, Canada, Europe, and Australia.  Peter Braxton: he covers your back and tightens your slack.

Robert Nehring is a project manager for Technomics, where he has developed many tools, data visualizations, databases, and cost estimates for programs throughout DoD and DHS.  He is an ICEAA-Certified Cost Estimator/Analyst who has won many awards, including the ICEAA 2013 Cost Estimator/Analyst of the Year for Technical Achievement and Best Conference Paper at the 2012 SCEA/ISPA Workshop.  He also developed the innovative Galaxy Chart concept and many other models and tools throughout his career.

Presentation Materials

Click to download: Innovative-Contract-Risk-Pricing-Strategy

Watch the event here.

Call-in Information


Microsoft Teams meeting

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Meeting ID: 280 964 754 486
Passcode: UWap8Z

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+1 253-336-6031,,193772210#   United States, Tacoma

Phone Conference ID: 193 772 210#