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WCAC ICEAA December Luncheon: Well, That Escalated Quickly – A Novel Approach to Forecasting Escalation
December 2 @ 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
SUBJECT: WCAC ICEAA December Luncheon: Well, That Escalated Quickly – A Novel Approach to Forecasting Escalation
PRESENTED BY: Sean Wells, Technomics
TIME: December 2, 2024 | 12:00 to 1:00pm eastern
SUMMARY:
Escalation rates are an important part of estimates, and as such, the provenance and derivation of indices should be regularly scrutinized, yet are rarely contemplated. This paper will compare a commonly used black-box escalation resource, IHS Global Insight, to a traceable, simplified forecasting method to determine if a purely mathematical model delivers improved forecasting accuracy. Our model relies on a curated set of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indices to develop a moving average forecast. With access to over 15 years of IHS forecasts dating back to 2006, spanning 800+ indices, this study has the unique opportunity to quantify the accuracy of IHS and moving average forecasts against historical BLS indices. Our paper will establish and explore various measures of forecast accuracy for use in creating defensible estimates. The goal is to provide a quick, transparent, and flexible way to develop tailored escalation projections without sacrificing accuracy.
Speakers:
Sean Wells, Technomics
Speaker Bios:
Sean Wells – Sean has been with Technomics since July 2023 and currently provides cost support to the US Navy and the Canadian National Shipbuilding Service. Sean holds an MS in Contracts Acquisition and Management from the Florida Institute of Technology and has over three years of professional experience working Ford Class Carrier and Virginia Class Submarine Estimates. He is an ICEAA Certified Cost Estimator/Analyst (CCEA).
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