- This event has passed.
WCAC ICEAA February Luncheon: Using Bayes’ Theorem to Develop CERs – Extending the Gaussian Model
February 27 @ 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
SUBJECT: WCAC ICEAA February Luncheon: Using Bayes’ Theorem to Develop CERs – Extending the Gaussian Model
PRESENTED BY: Christian Smart and David Jo
TIME: Tuesday, February 27, 2024 | 12:00 to 1:00pm eastern
SUMMARY:
Bayes’ Theorem is a mathematical method to combine prior experience with new data and is extremely important in leveraging limited information, which is often the case in cost estimating. This paper is an extension of a previous ICEAA paper that dealt with the application of Bayes’ Theorem to cost estimating. In this update we show how the Bayesian approach for linear models can be extended for different, more realistic assumptions.
This briefing was originally presented at the ICEAA Professional Development & Training Workshop.
Speaker Bios:
- Dr. Smart has a Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics, with more than 20 years of experience with the application of predictive analytics, machine learning, and risk management to defense and aerospace programs. Solving for Project Risk Management: Understanding the Critical Role of Uncertainty in Project Management is his first book. Dr. Smart is a Certified Cost Estimator/Analyst, the 2009 recipient of the ISPA Parametrician of the Year Award, the 2021 Frank Frieman Lifetime Achievement Award, and has presented at numerous ISPA, SCEA, and ICEAA conferences. He is currently employed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory as a Senior Programmatic Risk Analyst.
- David Jo is a PCEA certified cost analyst with a Bachelor Degree in Risk Management from The Penn State University. He has worked as a Database Administrator (DBA) for Wheeled and Tracked Vehicles (WTV) and is currently supporting Tactical Tomahawks (TACTOM) program. Mr. Jo is working to become a proficient data scientist able to use multiple programming languages. Outside of work, Mr. Jo enjoys watching football and playing golf.
________________________________________________________________________________
Microsoft Teams meeting
Join on your computer, mobile app or room device
Click here to join the meeting
Meeting ID: 219 641 187 326
Passcode: rqdVjh
Download Teams | Join on the web
Or call in (audio only)
+1 253-336-6031,,820161090# United States, Tacoma
Phone Conference ID: 820 161 090#